A Better Approach To Fixing Healthcare

February 14th, 2010

Pretty much everyone wants a better healthcare system.  The desire for change stems from two basic concerns:

  1. We want every American to be have insurance (e.g. you shouldn’t have to pay for your own healthcare if you can’t afford it)
  2. We think the cost of healthcare is too high

The major proponents of change would also have you believe that America has a horrible healthcare system because we have higher incidence of newborn fatalities and a lower life expectancy than other nations.  They say these are signals of a failed healthcare system.

But are they?  I’ve argued before, and I’ll argue again, that the cause of poor health in America has nothing to do with our healthcare system.  When you need critical care, there is no place better than America to get it.  America also is the runaway leader in healthcare research and generates more Nobel prize winners in Medicine than any other country.

So why do we die early?  Jamie Oliver, winner of this year’s TED Prize tells you why.  And the cost of the fix is cheap, and has nothing to do with our healthcare system.  The problem is us.  Changing insurance won’t make us live longer.  He’s a great speaker, I hope you’ll watch.

How to Get Our Democracy Back (Lessig is Wrong)

February 6th, 2010

congressforsale Since the Supreme Court Ruling on corporate limits last month, a lot of people have been discussing the role of lobbyists, special interests, and those that try to buy undue influence.  I’m ecstatic that this is gaining attention, because it doesn’t matter if you are liberal or conservative, I have yet to meet anyone that isn’t against this growing source of corruption in America.

Obama seems to think the ruling was wrong, and attacked the Supreme Court in his State of the Union address.  Lawrence Lessig wrote a nice article about our general lack of trust in congress, spurred by lobbyists and corruption.  He recommends the Fair Elections Now Act, which is good, but won’t prevent the corruption we have today.

Lessig follows the obvious answer – which is more spending caps and more legislation.  And while these are good ideas, they won’t work, because they don’t address real problem:

The government distributes too much money.

Why has the amount of money spent on lobbyists more than doubled in the last 10 years?  Because our government is expanding.  When we give money to the Federal Government to spend, special interests line up to assist with the distribution of those dollars.  If we just don’t let the Feds get the money in the first place, the lobbyists will disappear.   But as long as the money is there, the lobbyists will remain.

On the surface, it seems like contribution caps should be enough.  But the reality is that there are just too many loopholes.  Although the limits are allegedly $5,000 per candidate per year, it doesn’t take much browsing through OpenSecrets.org to discover that individuals, PACs and corporations are all able to openly donate much more (example1, example2, example3).  Unfortunately, legislation to close these doors is difficult at best, and impossible due to freedom of speech at worst.  There are so many back-door mechanisms to donate money (e.g. “hey, I’ll buy you a ticket to come talk here in San Francisco”, or “I can run a TV show about you”, or “I can write an article for you in my paper about how bad your opponent is”), that it just isn’t realistic to expect we can possibly close them all.

Special interest groups have figured this out.  They’re not just buying a few candidates, they’re now buying all of them.  Consider AT&T, for example, who donated $4.5M to candidates last year.  If you believed that the $5,000 per candidate contribution limit applied, that would mean they would donate to ~900 candidates.  In actuality, they donated to ~430.  And since there are only ~500 Congressmen,  that means they donated to most of them!  And AT&T is not alone.  The National Association of Realtors, and practically every union are doing exactly the same thing:  buying “access” to more than half of Congress.

Once we realize that centralizing our spending through the Federal Government is the problem, two simple solutions emerge:

  1. We need to give the government less money to spend.
  2. When we do give money to the government, we should federate it through states and local agencies as much as possible.  Don’t leave decision making power in Washington, where a small number of politicians can be influenced.

This realization also highlights why Obama’s entire strategy leads to more corruption, not less. Obama spent over $700B last year in “stimulus”.  Did he really believe that he could distribute such a massive amount of spending without calling out the lobbyists in droves?  Does it really surprise him that when he announced that he wanted a federal takeover of federal student loans that Sallie Mae would kick up it’s lobbying to the tune of $8M?

The unfairness and corruption is caused by the lobbyists and campaign contributions, that is true.  But they are not the root cause, and they are impossible to stop without violating our own liberties (hence the Supreme Court ruling).  When all money flows through a small funnel in Washington, corruption increases.  Take the money back, federate our spending across the states and local governments, reduce spending and reduce taxation, and the corruption will decrease.

Saving $7.2T by the year 2421

February 3rd, 2010

I am so sick of hearing claims like, “this bill will save $200B by 2020”.

What does that mean?  It usually means that in order to trump up the savings benefit, the politician multiplied the annual savings by 10.  Or they did inflation adjustment, or added debt interest, or other complex additives to make the savings look bigger than it is.  At the end of the day, it is a bogus number.

I just received a letter From Senator Diane Feinstein claiming a bill will save “$176 billion from 2014 to 2023”.  What that really means is an annual savings of roughly ~$17.6B.  That’s nice, but when put in perspective to the $3.6T spending package being proposed for 2011, it’s a mere half of one percent of spending.  And she calls this reform.

It’s not just the democrats doing this – all of them seem to use this kind of lying mathematics in order to fool their constituents.  It’s dishonest at worst and deceptive at best.

Tax Software for 2009

January 31st, 2010

Tax season is coming up.  I started looking at my oh-so-fun-tax software purchase decision.  (Why are our laws so complex that I have to buy a new version each year?)

turbotax Intuit did a great thing this year – they simply sent out the install CD in the mail without my ever purchasing it (Intuit learns from AOL)!  I put it into my computer and almost installed.  But when I saw the price for TurboTax Deluxe 2009 Fed + State was $59.95, that seemed a little high.  So I decided to look online, and it was a good thing I did!

I was pleasantly surprised to find Amazon carrying the exact same product (TurboTax Deluxe 2009 Federal + State) for only $46.54, with an electronic download.  That’s a quick $13 savings if I just install from the net instead of the CD they sent me.  I almost bought that too…

taxcutBut then I thought I should check H&R Block’s TaxCut price.  I’ve used TaxCut before and find it nearly identical to TurboTax.  The H&R Block website sells TaxCut for a little less than TurboTax, at $44.95.  That’s not enough cheaper than Amazon to be significant.  So, I decided to check Amazon again.

And wow! TaxCut Deluxe (Federal + State + eFile) is selling for only $23.75 if you download online!  Clearly this is a winner – less than half the cost of Intuit TurboTax.

As I wrote this, I bought and installed TaxCut.  So far, so good.

TCP Slow Start and the Web

January 31st, 2010

As part of my SPDY work, I published an informal slide deck about the effect of TCP’s slow start on HTTP performance.

Cliff notes:

  1. It has been known that TCP’s slow start adversely effects performance in high-latency, high bandwidth networks for years.
  2. Increasing cwnd (reducing slow start) has been slow through standards due to concerns about internet collapse.
  3. But web servers and browsers have already worked around TCP’s slow start by pummeling the net with excessive connections – effectively making slow start irrelevant.
  4. If slow start has already been worked around, and the internet has not collapsed, it is time to seriously look at changing how slow start works so that we don’t have to open 30 connections in order to have a low-latency transaction.

Feedback is welcome!

Operating System Install: FreeBSD

January 26th, 2010

I installed FreeBSD for the first time in a long time today.  I had to install it twice.  That sounds really bad, but it was for a surprising reason.

The install was pretty simple from the DVD; it kept asking me questions, and I answered them quickly, and after about 5 minutes, the entire process was complete.  Because the process was so fast, that I thought I had done something wrong (perhaps I had been bit by the cluky ANSI installation interface), so I installed again.  But again, it was a quick process and only took 5 minutes and then it returned to the main install screen.  Puzzling.

After a minute of thinking, I decided to try to boot.  And it worked!

So the entire from-scratch install process only took 5 minutes!  I certainly didn’t expect any sluggish Microsoft-like install times, but 5 minutes was amazing.  I guess they needed a bigger “I’m done” screen so that idiots like me won’t have to install twice.

OpenSecrets

January 18th, 2010

OpenSecrets is a great site.  Find out for yourself where the money is flowing in politics.

Interesting was reading about Scott Brown (highly publicized Senate race in Mass) and also where healthcare companies donate their money.  You might be surprised to know that it’s mostly going to Democrats right now, but I suspect that is due to their large majority population in congress.

For tech fans, reading about Microsoft’s PAC is also interesting.

Of course, if we really want to control our own government, we need to nix all political PACs and lobbyists.  Then OpenSecrets wouldn’t be such an interesting site.

Are you sure?

December 10th, 2009

quit How many times have you clicked quit on your computer (quit, reboot, go to next page, etc), gotten a stupid “are you sure” dialog, and not noticed?  Then you sit there like a lump waiting….

The reason these “are you sure” dialogs exist is because of broken applications.  If applications just automatically saved your state and could restart with zero delay, you’d never need to see this dialog, because there would be no penalty to accidentally closing an application.

Fortunately, web applications are fixing this.  Because the web has so many errors, web applications are forced to auto-save all the time.  Also, unlike their desktop counterparts, web applications are much faster to restart.  They still need to be faster, of course, but they are an order of magnitude faster than their desktop equivalents already.

Any Suckers In California Paying Sales Tax?

November 30th, 2009

This holiday season, I’m not going to pay any California State Sales Tax.  The blood suckers in Sacramento have raised taxes to a wallet-thinning 9.25% here.  I can ship my goods from New York to here for less than that!

Instead there are countless online e-tailers that I can purchase everything I want from.  It hardly takes any effort at all.

I know it is just a matter of time before California (and other states) close the inter-state loophole, but until then – screw ‘em.

And when they do, they’ll just be fuelling to push online e-tailers off shore.  How long will it take before amazon.mx replaces amazon.com?  And you can’t tax that!  Ha!

Arrington and Scams

November 28th, 2009

I don’t usually agree with TechCrunch, but lately I’ve been pretty impressed with Michael Arrington’s pursuit of the online scammers.  This is a problem which a lot of people have been involved with, but it took Arrington’s ScamVille writeup before anyone took action.  As a direct result of Arrington’s article, most of the participants took action.  OfferPal replaced it’s CEO, while  Zynga, RockYou, MySpace, and others all took a chance to tighten their anti-scam policies.  As Arrington notes, it is likely just a matter of time before new scams re-emerge – there is too much money on the table.  But I still think Arrington deserves tremendous credit for rooting this out.

His latest article calls out Video Professor as a scam, and I think he’s right on target again.  If you don’t put your prices on your website, you’re a scam.  Video Professor sucks.  Go Mike!